Warning: declare(encoding=...) ignored because Zend multibyte feature is turned off by settings in /home/webadmin/sites/iftf.org/public_html/typo3_src-4.6.18/typo3/sysext/fluid/Classes/Core/Widget/AbstractWidgetViewHelper.php on line 2 IFTF: Superstruct! Play the Game, Invent the Future

Institute For The Future

  • What We Do
    • Who We Are
    • IFTF Vantage Partnership
    • IFTF Foresight Essentials
    • Forecasts
    • Workshops
    • Maps
    • Artifacts from the Future
    • Events
    • In the News
    • Media Center
    • Gallery
    • History of the Future
  • Our Work
    • Featured Projects
    • Global Landscape
    • People + Technology
    • Health + Self
  • Partner with IFTF
    • IFTF Vantage
    • IFTF Foresight Essentials
    • Research Labs
    • Partners
    • Jobs
    • Donate
    • Contact Us
    • Privacy Policy
  • Future Now
  • Donate
Medium Facebook Twitter RSS
  • Global Landscape
  • People + Technology
  • Health + Self

Superstruct! Play the Game, Invent the Future

  • Featured Projects
  • Global Landscape

    • Ten-Year Forecast

    • Food Futures

    • Work + Learn Futures

    • Workable Futures

    • Cities Futures

    • Governance Futures

    • Inclusive Futures

    • Socialstructing

    • Sustainability

  • People + Technology

    • Smithsonian Futures Beacons

    • Tech Futures

    • Work + Learn Futures

    • Workable Futures

    • Games

  • Health + Self

    • After the Pandemic

    • Centering Health

    • Health Futures

    • Health Care

    • Health Games

    • Aging

INTERESTED IN LEARNING MORE ABOUT IFTF?

Contact us today »

Future NOW Blog

Identify Your Assets and Gaps: A Foresight Tool for Action

Oct 14, 2022

IFTF News from the Future #80

Oct 06, 2022

IFTF Equitable Enterprise Newsletter | September

Sep 28, 2022

Sparking a Sense of Hope & Agency

Sep 19, 2022

IFTF News from the Future #79

Sep 08, 2022

Browse all blog posts »

Press Release

In the fall of 2008, the Institute for the Future invited everyone to play Superstruct, the world’s first massively multiplayer forecasting game. It wasn't just about envisioning the future—it was about inventing the future.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

SEPTEMBER 22, 2019

Humans have 23 years to go

Global Extinction Awareness System starts the countdown for Homo sapiens.

PALO ALTO, CA — Based on the results of a year-long supercomputer simulation, the Global Extinction Awareness System (GEAS) has reset the "survival horizon" for Homo sapiens - the human race - from "indefinite" to 23 years.

“The survival horizon identifies the point in time after which a threatened population is expected to experience a catastrophic collapse,” GEAS president Audrey Chen said. “It is the point from which it a species is unlikely to recover. By identifying a survival horizon of 2042, GEAS has given human civilization a definite deadline for making substantive changes to planet and practices.”

According to Chen, the latest GEAS simulation harnessed over 70 petabytes of environmental, economic, and demographic data, and was cross-validated by ten different probabilistic models. The GEAS models revealed a potentially terminal combination of five so-called “super-threats”, which represent a collision of environmental, economic, and social risks. “Each super-threat on its own poses a serious challenge to the world's adaptive capacity,” said GEAS research director Hernandez Garcia. “Acting together, the five super-threats may irreversibly overwhelm our species’ ability to survive.”Garcia said, “Previous GEAS simulations with significantly less data and cross-validation correctly forecasted the most surprising species collapses of the past decade: Sciurus carolinenis and Sciurus vulgaris, for example, and the Anatidae chen. So we have very good reason to believe that these simulation results, while shocking, do accurately represent the rapidly growing threats to the viability of the human species.”

GEAS notified the United Nations prior to making a public announcement. The spokesperson for United Nations Secretary General Vaira Vike-Freiberga released the following statement: "We are grateful for GEAS' work, and we treat their latest forecast with seriousness and profound gravity."

GEAS urges concerned citizens, families, corporations, institutions, and governments to talk to each other and begin making plans to deal with the super-threats.

 

 

 

 

  • Institute for the Future

  • 201 Hamilton Avenue
  • Palo Alto, CA 94301
  • 650.854.6322
  • [email protected]

  • © 2025 Institute for the Future

    What We Do

  • Who We Are
  • IFTF Vantage Partnership
  • IFTF Foresight Essentials
  • Forecasts
  • Workshops
  • Maps
  • Artifacts from the Future
  • Events
  • In the News
  • Media Center
  • Gallery
  • History of the Future

    Our Work

  • Featured Projects
  • Global Landscape
  • People + Technology
  • Health + Self

    Partner with IFTF

  • IFTF Vantage
  • IFTF Foresight Essentials
  • Research Labs
  • Partners
  • Jobs
  • Donate
  • Contact Us
  • Privacy Policy

    Future Now

    Donate