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2012 Ten-Year Forecast

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2012 Ten-Year Forecast:

A Century of Transformation, A Decade of Turbulence

The future is a question of what is possible. We can imagine a decade of growth and collapse. We know those are both possible. We can face constraints and discipline ourselves to live in a world of new limits. But what about transformation? How do we think about a world that seems impossible by today's rules?

Today, even as the incumbent patterns are fading, a new world is taking shape. It's a world that will flourish by the end of the century. But in the transition from old to new will be turbulence. Seen through this lens of two curves—a descent of the familiar and the ascent of the as-yet-uncharted—the century presents itself as a classic two-curve problem. As the coming decade unfolds, a gap opens up between the old and the new. In this gap, extraordinary innovation and possibility emerge. But often, so do collapse and even chaos. The gap is where the impossible becomes possible. Sometimes for better, sometimes for worse.

Research Materials

Download

  • SR-1472_TYF12_MOTD_reader_sm.pdf

    2012 Map of the Decade [SR-1472]

  • SR-1472_TYF12_ArtifactCards_incumbent_sm.pdf

    Artifacts from the Future: Incumbent Path [SR-1472]

  • SR-1472_TYF12_ArtifactCards_emergent_sm.pdf

    Artifacts from the Future: Emergent Path [SR-1472]

  • SR-1473_TYF12_Forecast_intro_card_sm.pdf

    Introduction: Forecasts [SR-1473]

  • SR-1473_TYF12_BiomolecularForecast_sm.pdf

    Forecast: Biomolecularization [SR-1473]

  • SR-1473_TYF12_DeindustrializationForecast_sm.pdf

    Forecast: Deindustrialization [SR-1473]

  • SR-1473_TYF12_DematerialForecast_sm.pdf

    Forecast: Dematerialization [SR-1473]

  • SR-1473_TYF12_HyperUrbanForecast_sm.pdf

    Forecast: Hyper-Urbanization [SR-1473]

  • SR-1473_TYF12_InformationForecast_sm.pdf

    Forecast: Information Intensification [SR-1473]

  • SR-1473_TYF12_SocialProdForecast_sm.pdf

    Forecast: Social Production [SR-1473]

  • SR-1473_TYF12_Scenario_IntroCard_sm.pdf

    Introduction: A Decade of Impossible Scenarios [SR-1473]

  • SR-1473_TYF12_type1_ScenarioCards_sm.pdf

    Impossible Scenarios: Type 1 [SR-1473]

  • SR-1473_TYF12_type2_ScenarioCards_sm.pdf

    Impossible Scenarios: Type 2 [SR-1473]

  • SR-1473_TYF12_type3_ScenarioCards_sm.pdf

    Impossible Scenarios: Type 3 [SR-1473]

  • SR-1473_TYF12_type_4_scenario_cards_sm.pdf

    Impossible Scenarios: Type 4 [SR-1473]

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