Institute For The Future

What will this next decade look like?

The future is a high-resolution game. Never before has humanity been

able to explore the emerging landscape in such detail, to measure the

forces of change at such vast scales, and to fill in the details with

such fine grain. But this high-resolution grid is not complete. It

challenges us to envision and build the future we want. As both gamers

and creators of the game, we will fill in the grid over the coming

decade.

The 2010 Ten-Year Forecast Map of the Decade is a map of this emergent game space. It starts by benchmarking the big forces that will shape the decade:

• The Carbon Economy
• The Water Ecology
• Adaptive Power
• Cities in Transition
• Molecular Identity

Then it invites us to engage in a strategic contest with the future, using the grid as a gameboard. Each cell is a scenario where we could win or lose. Taken together, the cells add up to four over-arching alternative scenarios:

• Growth: One Step Ahead of Disaster
• Constraint: Sustainable Paths in a Low-Capital World
• Collapse: Local Disaster, Regional Conflicts
• Transformation: Superstructed Systems

The map highlights these scenarios and the signals that already point to each of them today. It also suggests ways to "play the game"—to engage your team, your organization, or your community in exploring strategies for resilience, legacy, and happiness over the next ten years.

2010 Map of the Decade: Game Master Guide

Also see the Game Master Guide for instructions on how the 2010 Map of the Decade was intended to be used as a game board. As always, feel free to make up your own rules as you go!

Map: Download or Purchase

The 2010 Map of the Decade is now available for free download as a PDF.

More Information

For more details about the forecasts and scenarios that make up this year's Ten Year Forecast, please contact Sean Ness at 650-233-9517 or [email protected].