Institute For The Future

Rod Falcon on zones of instability

The concept of zones of instability" serves as a framework for technology adoption. We're focused on eight (interdependent, interrelated) dimensions of instability:

Environment. Large-scale changes in the natural and built environment caused by both human action and natural forces.
Infrastructure. Social services and institutions, and physical infrastructure, e.g., water, sewage, electricity, etc. In many parts of the world, people have to build their own infrastructures, because the state is either too poor or too weak to do it for them. In these situations, social capital becomes very important, and people emerge as more significant players than the state.
Employment. Job growth and mobility, the growth of temporary and piece work, are encouraging vast flows of humanity.
Health. Access to health services is on the decline because of privatization, while certain kinds of health risks are growing because of environmental change and globalization. Many of the families were one illness away from serious disruptions.
Intergenerational. The social contract between generations is being strained, especially in places where they traditionally have been very strong: for example, in India, joint families-- intergenerational families led by a patriarch-- are being challenged by nuclear families.
Property. Economic growth and higher standards of living mean more consumption, but also more attention to ownership and risk management. (As Bob Dylan might say, when you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to insure.)
Morality. Concerns about moral breakdowns, family bonds, etc..
identity. People living new lives-- working in cities, dealing with long commutes, managing property-- have to develop and manage multiple, context-specific identities.