Institute For The Future

From the Archives: World Climatic Change + Variability

In 1978, IFTF published a paper titled World Climatic Change and Variability, 1977—1990: Five Scenarios, which explored the consequences of five different climate change scenarios. Each scenario described how resulting changes in rainfall, droughts, typhoons, and temperature would affect different regions of the world.

From the “Moderate Global Warming” scenario:

The global cooling trend that began in the 1940s was reversed in the last quarter of the 20th century. By the year 2000, average global temperatures had risen by approximately 0.35° C, compared to the mid-’70s. Climatologist explained that this increase in temperature was due principally to the warming effect of increasing amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which predominated over a slow, natural cooling effect.

Read the Full Report

• World Climate Change and Variability 1977-1990: Five Scenarios, written by Roy Amara and Hubert Lipinski