Future Now
The IFTF Blog
Meet the families
Russia
These are "stories from before and after." The "before" was perestroika in the mid-1980s; the "after" was Putin's rise; the time in the middle was the political and economic collapse of the 1990s. This is a transition from world in which the state was in charge of everything, to an improvisational era that blends some old stuff with a lot of new.
The Grozov family. Six kids. Dad worked for a privatized SOE, but often is paid in barter (leather jackets, for example). Mom was a bookkeeper before the 1990s, and when she came back into the workforce she had to deal with dramatic changes in the accounting profession, technology, and the problem of discrimination against older workers. School went from state supported to pay-per-service: every class, lesson, etc. incurs a charge.
The family is doing better now than in the 1990s, but still struggling.
Irina Dubov. Lives in Moscow with her daughter. For her, the 1990s were a "period of euphoria:" was involved in the pro-democracy movement, now runs an elite school. After serving in the Moscow city government, she borrowed money to start a school; she also acquired a few other buildings at the bottom of the market, and now is quite wealthy.
Forecast. Four things stand out.
- Increasing polarization: the emergence of an oligarchy, upper class, and impoverished former professionals.
- Emergence of new classes and identities: evangelical Christianity is a new thing in Russia.
- Hunger and openness to new beliefs and practices: lots of shows about etiquette, business behavior, etc.
- Women more likely to fill niches left by government institutions: they're rebuilding the infrastructure and social net.
India
14 families in Delhi, Calcutta, Mumbai, and Bangalore. Things have taken off since the early 1990s, with economic liberalization and globalization. As one informant put it, "We've always had to look back to be proud; now we can look ahead."
The Chatterjees are professors in Calcutta. They're an intercaste "love marriage" (in contrast to an arranged marriage) and a nuclear family (in contrast to a more conventional joint family).
The Gowda family lives in Bangalore. They're the wealthiest-- thanks to the IT industry-- but are lowest caste. Huge challenges with extreme mobility.
The Pratap family is a joint family in Delhi. They're dealing with infrastructure instability: they live in an illegal colony on government land near a highway, and have been fighting to get their neighborhood legally recognized.
Forecast. Expect to see
- More nuclear families
- Greater power for women
- Opportunities for new household services
- Privacy companies to fill in gaps in basic infrastructure
China
The map of Beijing is updated every six months.
Suburbanization is a giant thing, with impacts on social isolation, dislocation, etc.
Lis are families who live outside Chendong. Most of their lives are lived without cash, because rural economies are mainly barter; you have to move to get access to cash. Older daughter spent a lot of time online, and didn't get into college.
Forecast. We expect to see
- Suburban complexes will be sites of friction and innovation
- Emergence of demanding, fearful, and collectively mobilized Chinese consumer
- Age will be the most important social differentiator-- more important than urban/rural, rich/poor
Silicon Valley
This work continues to build on our earlier ethnographic work.
Huge mobility in work, cultural mixing and remixing suggests that
- Identity will become even more malleable as people flow through
- high-tech workers will have to work with others and in other places to keep their jobs
- Burden of health care will fall increasingly on individuals and their families
- Health care will be increasingly global and plural