Institute For The Future

Get There Early: Positive Responses in Science and Leisure

[This is an extract from Chapter 3 of Bob Johansen's new book, Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present. -Ed.]

Science in a VUCA World. Science issues fuel confusion, but science can also help us understand the volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity around us. The changes underway in science and technology are vivid and evident to anyone who is paying attention. From stem cells to biotech to global warming, it seems that there is a science and technology story in the newspapers every day, and most of the stories concern both hopes and fears.

IFTF did a study for the government of the United Kingdom that synthesized forecasts of science and technology, thinking out ten, twenty, and fifty years ahead. This was an independent outside look, to provide input to science policy makers in the United Kingdom. In this project, we did a series of expert panels and drew together forecasts from around the world. We created an online exchange among experts as a way of synthesizing the forecasts as the project unfolded.

The workshops we did with scientists, policy makers, and thought leaders made apparent a core dilemma: science and technology developments always happen in some social context. Science and technology don’t create the future, but they do enable and amplify it.

Technology forecasters must take stock of the social climate within which the technology is developing. In effect, every technology forecast must be a social forecast, or at least it must contain social assumptions.

Here are the six core science and technology drivers identified by the IFTF study, with a note regarding the societal issues each will raise:

• Small world, with sensors everywhere, meaning that the geoweb discussed in Chapter 2 will become practical on a very large scale. Anytime, anyplace sensing will play out in a world that is worried about both safety (from terrorism and many other threats) and the privacy of individuals.

• Intentional biology, with new possibilities to guide human life at the molecular level. Such abilities raise great possibilities for use and misuse, with very different views of what may constitute misuse. The world of intentional biology is loaded with the possibilities for unintended consequences.

• Extended self, with new possibilities to extend the human body, the mind, and the senses. Again, social norms and values will shape what is accepted as part of the range of human diversity and what is out of bounds.

• Mathematical world, with new capabilities to visualize very complex patterns in comprehensible ways. Big-picture patterns become more visible in this world, but these patterns may not match the assumptions or beliefs of some groups within society.

• Sensory transformation, with new abilities to sense and process what is sensed. Simulation will become more practical as a learning medium in this world, which will introduce new ways to develop disciplines of readiness.

• Light infrastructure, with a move from centralized grids to flexible smaller-scale infrastructure. Energy conservation and sustainability could improve in profound ways using light infrastructure. Societal attitudes toward sustainability could reach a tipping point over the next decade, with more practical and affordable ways to be environmentally sound.

Technology and science have major impacts on society, but society shapes the kinds of technology applications that actually come to the marketplace. Society can slow down or speed up a core technology evolutionary path, not to mention bending that path in significant ways. In California, for example, a public initiative was passed to support stem cell research. A coalition of conservative groups, however, brought a lawsuit against stem cell research that kept the initiative from being implemented for several years. Eventually, the public initiative was translated into active programs, but these NGOs delayed the start and shaped what actually happened.

Both science and technology present many problems that can be solved, but they also present many dilemmas that are much more profound, and it is the dilemmas that become clear when you look ten, twenty, and fifty years ahead. The future world is a high-tech world, with deep roots in science but also a with long roots to the past, and many of these roots are resistant to change from both science and technology.

Leisure in a VUCA World. Ocean cruises and theme parks are examples of what Joe Pine and Jim Gilmore call the “experience economy,” in which the experience is the product and service. Pine and Gilmore talk about the overall economic shift from products to services to experiences to transformations.6 Leisure is still important, but it will play out in a world that is increasingly concerned about safety.

Cruise ships can provide authentic experiences that lead to personal transformations. For example, a cruise offers a family quality time alone for the parents, amazing activities for the kids, and family time for meals and other group activities—in the comfortable world of a cruise ship— which nowadays is very comfortable indeed. Cruse ships go to interesting places while traveling in a contained, comfortable, and safe environment.

In recent years, however, the VUCA world has broken into the comfortable world of cruising. Higher fuel prices are an obvious pressure for the cruise lines. More questions are being raised about the environmental effects of these giant ships, even though the newest ships have greatly reduced their negative environmental impacts. In fact, the water treatment and recycling capabilities on modern ships are impressive indeed, and the fuel used by a cruise ship is far less than that if all the guests took individual automobile trips. Still, cruise ships look environmentally suspect.

The cruise lines are sailing conspicuously between the developed and the developing worlds, moving back and forth across the gap between rich and poor in giant-size vessels that embody and advertise wealth. Imagine a luxury cruise liner pulling into a harbor in the developing world. (I have never seen a humble-looking cruise ship.) People (most of them poor) on shore rush out to see the fantastic ship towering over the sea. The first glance from shore is a vision of incredible extravagance, embodying a luxury experience that the local folks could never afford or possibly even imagine. When they go ashore, the ad- vantaged passengers come face-to-face with the disadvantaged residents. Many types of encounters are possible.

Cruise companies are working to be perceived by guests and by local ports as both international and supportive of local development. Their international side calls for them to offer travel opportunities to attractive spots around the world. In addition, cruise companies want to draw passengers who might be based in very different parts of the world. Their local challenge is to figure out how to engage in positive ways with each port of call so that cruise ships are seen as welcome guests at each stop. Some cruise companies arrange for local contributions of food, money, or time by their guests when the ships visit foreign ports. By working with local NGOs or government groups, cruise ships have the opportunity to design positive experiences for their guests while also contributing to the local communities that they visit. Cruise companies want respect and support from both sides of the richpoor gap.

The cruise companies’ dilemma is figuring out how to facilitate positive guest experiences while maintaining good relations with the areas where the ships visit. Cruise companies must balance competing needs, wants, and perceptions in order to create both positive business models and a positive brand reputation with regard to environmental and social impacts. They offer safe adventures with many options on board that range from rock climbing to surfing to personal growth experiences, but they also face new challenges as they cruise the VUCA world.

Theme parks are similar in some ways to cruise ships, but they exist in a more self-contained world. In an anxiety-laden world, safety is a priority—particularly for parents. For kids, however, adrenalin rushes are highly valued, and they want the rush at an earlier age than ever before— probably because of the vivid media experiences with which they now grow up. Can kids be scared safely?

Walt Disney World in Orlando, for example, is one of the safest places in the world. It feels very safe to parents, but it also provides exciting experiences for their kids. The dilemma is to provide both experiences authentically: safety that reassures the parents and thrilling experiences for the kids. It is getting harder and harder for theme parks to win in the throes of this dilemma.

Theme parks provide the potential for transformative experiences. Within the context of a theme park, transformative entertainment can go beyond traditional products and services. Disneyland and Walt Disney World, for example, provide rides and attractions that are an amazing mix of theater and thrill. Where other theme parks emphasize brute force thrill and adrenalin rush by shock, Disney does it with artistic and theatrical flair. The parents and grandparents are likely to understand and appreciate this difference, but it is a challenge to reach the kids— who are coming to theme parks with much richer experiences and expectations than the kids of the past (who are now the young parents). Parents will continue to have safety concerns, however, and the fears are likely to get worse, not better. The safely scared dilemma will be increasingly difficult to manage.