Institute For The Future

Future of science and technology workshop 5: Breakthroughs and game-changers

Big question: What are they key breakthroughs in science and technology that will shape the world in the next 10-50 years?

2005: Surveillance: 1984 is here (KD)

2010: Bioterror attach. A new organism is developed and used. (BR)

2010: Extremely low-cost wireless devices contribute to improving poor areas of the world: self-organization, innovation a la Grameen Bank microcredit innovations, better medical care. (LS)

2010: K-12 IBL (Inquiry Based Learning). Math science education reform, higher education reform (JLe)

2010: Return of the Fairness Doctrine and return of balanced mass media (SS)

2010: Collapse of mass transit (LS)

2010: Collapse of mass transit and growing tide of unreason drives growth of telepresence (LS)

2010: Collision detection software in cars (KD)

2012: Widely-used visual telecom (JL) [debate over informal interactions]

2013: Better medicine through enzymatic treatments. Using cells as factories (MB)

2015: Pandemic created demand for new science funding and sharing regimes, global public goods (JR)

2015: Global health arms race between emerging pandemics and biotech research (LS)

2015: Brain drain out of US to emerging countries (China, India, Korea) (LS)

2015: Al Jezeera population becomes inured to TV. The impact of TV and media will dissipate, as kids grow up cynical about media (JL)

2015: Greater than 60 faraday/liter ultracapacitors (JLe)

2015: No travel (VS) [argument about virtues of personal contact, need to deal directly with people]

2015: Vulnerability of Greenland and arctic ice sheet will be well-understood (SS)

2015: Deep knowledge of genetic predisposition to disease. Microarrays, designer treatments, serious implications for everything (VS) [BR: This'll be a disaster: we don't know enough about coupling between different kinds of predispositions-- between, say, disease or depression, and genius]

2015: New organisms, new genes. A la Ventner, people all over the world are discovering new genes in newly-discovered organisms. (MB)

2015: Biological citizenship. Increasing notion of biosociology, with organization around chromosomal defects, chronic illness, etc.. Changes in funding priorities, technological and therapeutic development (JR)

2015: Near zero-emission hybrid diesel-electric cars (JLe)

2015: Human usable software (BR)

2015: Useful carbon capture and sequestration technologies (SS)

2015: Collapse of WTO (JR)

2015: Integrate environmental concerns into WTO (SS)

2015: Collision avoidance becomes common enough to affect accident rates (JL)

2020: Terrorist nuke destroys globalization and cooperation (SS)

2020: DNA, bio-based goverment scrutiny (MB)

2020: Immune system replacement through stem cells (VS)

2020: Invisibility of the watchers (three-letter acronyms will disappear under the radar); most of us will live in a global Truman Show (LS) [JL: Is it stable? Is there something extraordinary about the watchers?]

2020: Educating the children. Worries that focus on science and math ed will come at the expense of logic, statistics, history (BR)

2020: Mass education "doubt/test" model is over. "Faith/trust"-based system will replace it. (LS)

2020: "New Sputnik" from China (JL)

2020: Intelligent cars lead to vanishing of car-train distinction. Mixes private and public resources (JL)

2020: Cheap, widely-available telepresence (KD)

2020: "Murder of the immortals" or "deification of the immortals" (JL)

2020: MTAs (material transfer agreements) cripple science, lead to open source models (VS) [BR calls it "suicide of the universities"-- IP restrictions aren't doing any good for universities, but are very bad for science]

2020: Distributed biological manufacturing. Using cells to make things; open source molecular biology (JR)

2020: Biological solutions to pollution problems (LS)

2025: Large penetration of plugin hybrid vehicles (SS)

2025: Central nervous system prosthetics (JL)

2025: Impact of warming on ocean circulation is better understood, and the results aren't happy (SS)

2025: Medical establishment applies decision analytic treatments to treatment protocols (SS)

2025: Cheap solar and energy storage (BR) [large power systems are easier and will come first; personal power storage are tougher]

2025: Ted Taylor renewable energy (JLe)

2025: 10x improvement in battery density (JLe)

2025: Rise of tribalism, religious fundamentalism; Taliban model becomes common (KD)

2030: First drug for pervasive Third World disease developed in open source model (JR)

2030: Omni-transparent society: Everyone gives up privacy symmetrically (JL)

2030: 30% efficient flexible solar cells (JLe) [arguments: BR says 10% is doable, and you can put them up like wallpaper; 30% is outrageous]

2030: Good big software. We get out from the reverse Moore's Law of software, has to involve user interface (JL)

2030: Global warming drastically alters freshwater storage and distribution system. Biggest impact will be in the Himalayan snow pack, which 1/3 of the world depends on (LS)

2035: Stem cells used to recreate any organ (VS)

2035: Private funding for science predominates in the First World: Gates and Moore foundations provide model (VS)

2055: Science (sciences) of life: New understanding of life, consciousness, society. Closing gap between mathematical approaches for individuals and groups. Human sciences becoming more mathematical; physics-stimulated mathematics moving more into small groups and individuals. (KD)

2050: Engineered bio-energy (BR) [it'll do a lot of good]

2055: 80%+ global literacy, and not just reading (SS)

2055: Large penetration of renewable energy systems (SS)

2055: Medical services for either <80% or >20% of humanity (SS)

2055: Ammonia based fuels: good source of H2, gotta solve serious toxicity problems (JLe)