Institute For The Future

From #10YF2014: Global Simulation Corps

Simulations are models of reality that help people prepare for possible futures, and the most ambitious of these attempt to model large complex systems—even entire economies or ecosystems. From the dawn of systems dynamics to the WORLD3 model used in Limits to Growth and on to the current rise of present-day predictive modeling efforts, the interest in building large-scale global simulations seems to rise and fall over time. But as we reach a new threshold of computing power and a new capacity to marshal the resources of the crowd, perhaps we’re ready for a renaissance.

 

The 2014 Ten-Year Forecast Annual Retreat explored the landscape of change over the next decade by inviting attendees to contemplate ten projects that—if successfully undertaken today—could change the paradigm in their fields in the next ten years. These bold projects are already taking shape in the dark underside of the internet, in the foundations of our global cities, in the building blocks of our economies, and in the microbes of our bodies and our planet. They are rapidly recoloring our world.

 

During the retreat on May 1-2, Jake Dunagan examined the potential of creating a global infrastructure for inventing, testing, and learning from participatory simulations.

 

We are already experimenting with different models of simulation:

• FuturICT is a European research organization that has developed plans for a participatory modeling project called the Living Earth Simulation. The project, which aims to “simulate everything,” could be a platform for a Global Simulation Corps.
• The Center for Complex Networks and Systems Research at Indiana University models complex systems with the kinds of nonlinear feedback mechanisms that characterize human behavior—and are thus essential to successfully building global simulations of social systems.
• Culturomics 2.0 is an effort to forecast large-scale human behavior using global news “media tone” over time and space. The methods have provided early warning of conflicts in such places as Egypt, Serbia, Lybia, and Saudi Arabia.

 

 

Human civilization desperately needs better ways to understand, prepare for, and manage change effectively. We don’t have the capacity to govern at the scale and speed of change we’re experiencing in this century. The proponents of projects like the Living Earth Simulator are attempting to create a mechanism for sensing, preparing for, and acting appropriately on the challenges we face as a society. The Global Simulation Corps is a vision for how to marshal resources to link this mechanism to our human capacity to adapt to change.

 

If successful, such a project would transform not only the practices of foresight, planning, and strategy. It would also build the very infrastructure for explicitly “governing the future.” This infrastructure would build global citizens with extraordinary insights into the choices posed by our complex systems, as well as our capacity to expand the range of human responses to those choices. In short, it would create a new form of future-oriented democracy.

At the heart of this vision is a recognition of this historical moment in our governance systems: We have come to a juncture where our current configurations of democracy fail both to represent the will of the people and to respond effectively to the unprecedented challenges we face. A Global Simulation Corps anticipates a new democracy of change management.

 

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This post is from our 2014 Ten-Year Forecast, which explores 10 bold projects that have the potential to change the world over the next 10 years. In the coming weeks, look for more about the projects and the futures they would make.

 

Curious about the Ten-Year Forecast Program?

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• Take a sneak peek at our plans for 2015
• Find out more about the Ten-Year Forecast program
• Check out previous years' Ten-Year Forecast research
• Contact Sean Ness ([email protected])