Future Now
The IFTF Blog
Food vs. Fuel Heats Up
The food vs. fuel debate has really flared up in the last few weeks, with food riots in places like Haiti threatening major political disruption. This has been building up rapidly for the last year.
The New York Times reports today:
According to the World Bank, global food prices have increased by 83 percent in the last three years. Rice, a staple food for nearly half the world’s population, has been a particular focus of concern in recent weeks, with spiraling prices prompting several countries to impose drastic limits on exports as they try to protect domestic consumers.
While you can't blame all of this on biofuel:
Many specialists in food policy consider government mandates for biofuels to be ill advised, agreeing that the diversion of crops like corn into fuel production has contributed to the higher prices. But other factors have played big roles, including droughts that have limited output and rapid global economic growth that has created higher demand for food. That growth, much faster over the last four years than the historical norm, is lifting millions of people out of destitution and giving them access to better diets. But farmers are having trouble keeping up with the surge in demand.
While there is agreement that the growth of biofuels has contributed to higher food prices, the amount is disputed. Work by the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington suggests that biofuel production accounts for a quarter to a third of the recent increase in global commodity prices. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations predicted late last year that biofuel production, assuming that current mandates continue, would increase food costs by 10 to 15 percent.
It seems reasonable that things will stabilize - a global recession should give farmers enough time to catch up with demand, and ease some of the pressure on fuel markets. But if this is a long-term pattern, we can expect a lot more unexpected intersections.