Future Now
The IFTF Blog
Deep dive into energy
[From the July 27 expert workshop.]
BR: Coal is most abundant, but is most destructive. By 2025, China will probably be using more energy than the US.
JLe: We're going from 13 TW to 30 TW annual consumption by 2050. Not only are India and China growing: there are 2 billion people who have no access to electricity now, who will in the future. How we can satisfy that demand is completely unclear, and the chances are we'll have the emergence of energy haves and have nots.
BR: Current consumption is evenly split between transportation, industry, residential. This means you need to add 1 GW every day of varied energy types-- not just nuclear power or alternative, but also for substitutes for oil and gas.
LS: We're 40 years into federally-subsidized research on synthetic fuels, and 40 years of discussion about the need to move away from natural, non-renewable sources. We have a more polarized media today; are we likely to get any better at dealing with the issues? (Though if China has a recession caused by the rottenness of its infrastructure, that'll buy us some time.)
SS: The overall picture is worse, but energy intensities have been getting better: California has actually gotten more efficient, but the environmental situation has gotten worse because economic and population growth has outstripped those savings.
BR: Energy storage is a big unknown. H2 is a way to store solar and wind; pumped hydro is our best play so far.
When does the curve peak:
2030 4
2035 8
2040 9
LS: But we may have functionally infinite oil supply, thanks to IT, bio, and nano improvements.
The greatest challenges aren't exclusively technological; one of the biggest impediments is thinking long-term, and seeing the consequences.