Institute For The Future

IFTF Releases “Mega Scenarios Toolkit” To Help Decision Makers Explore Urgent Futures Facing California

A new toolkit from the Institute for the Future and California 100 provides narratives to help decision-makers in California assess risks and opportunities for decades to come.

June 23, 2022, Institute for the Future (IFTF) and California 100 released “Mega Scenarios: A Toolkit for the Future of California,” a guide for policymakers, thought leaders, and decision-makers to rigorously explore the big potential risks and opportunities the state could face 10, 30, and even 100 years in the future.

For over 50 years IFTF has been developing research-based scenarios and using strategic foresight methods to provide a longer term view
for civic society. These are not predictions but plausible possibilities that help people break out
of short-term thinking and assumptions to imagine
bold innovative solutions.

"The stakes have never been higher,"
said IFTF Executive Director Marina Gorbis.
"As the fifth-largest economy in the world, decisions made in California today will have
far-reaching implications for the country and
the world—tomorrow."

The scenarios include:

• 10-YEAR MEGA SCENARIOS
  The Toolkit's first section asks Californians to envision the kind of state they would like to live in ten years from now. These scenarios ask if we would be better off doubling down on strong government action or adopting a more permissive policy to support emerging technologies.

• 30-YEAR MEGA SCENARIOS
  Next, we examine the global role that California will play in the coming decades as climate change, global immigration, and new technologies take hold.  In these scenarios, California could play a leading or following role depending on the geopolitical makeup of the world in the 2040s and 2050s.

• 100-YEAR MEGA SCENARIO
  In the final scenario, we see California in the year 2122 as a state that integrates the needs of human systems with the capacities and limitations of the natural systems around it. This desirable scenario could be realized if we start working toward it now.

Today, IFTF and California 100 hosted a launch workshop to gather first reactions to the scenarios from commissioners, thought leaders, and everyday Californians. In addition to the 13 policy and scenario reports the organizations have already completed, these scenarios will form the basis for listening sessions by the California 100 Commission this summer. The research, scenarios, and engagement activities will culminate in the final California 100 vision and strategy report in 2023.

“With the Mega Scenarios for the Future of California Toolkit we continue to engage Californians in possible scenarios with a 10 year, 30 year, and 100 year timeframe,” said Karthick Ramakrishnan, executive director for California 100. “This toolkit, our research, and our innovation and engagement work, will inform our engagement activities including work with stakeholders, government agencies, community groups and Californians in the coming months and year.”

In the Media

• "What will California look like in 100 years? These futurists want to help politicians shape the next century." Adele Peters interviews Marina Gorbis for Fast Company (7/7/22).
• "Making the leap into California’s future — and the unknown." Seth Sandrovsky interviews Marina Gorbis for Capitol Weekly (7/8/22).
• "What should California’s future look like?" Dan Walters quotes Marina Gorbis for MSN (7/17/22).

For more on this project with California 100 visit this page.