Institute For The Future

2020 South Africa Scenarios

I just finished reading the Dinokeng Scenarios and am really happy. How nice that the world is producing such wonderful things. I hope these 3 scenarios will lead to better tomorrows for South Africa.

The Dinokeng Scenarios were written by 35 South African from all industries and political backgrounds. The purpose is to engage “citizen-leaders” in a conversation about the future of South Africa. As is shown in the scenarios, having an engaged and committed citizenry to hold the government accountable to their promises and for their behavior is a key to a successful future for South Africa. What I love about this, is by creating the Dinokeng Scenarios, SA is actively working to create the future they want. This is futures thinking at its best!

Dinokeng Scenarios says it the best, so I’d like to give you a portion of their intro:

 

“If you study countries in transition you will see a “mood pattern”. It’s a global trend. Look at Southern Europe, South America; it always starts with euphoria. Mandela represents our euphoria. We still rely on the Mandela magic. We haven’t taken responsibility at a very subconscious level. We expect from the world that we have given them Mandela and they must give us the cheque. We believe in the miracle, and then we discover that it’s not the way the world works. We move to disillusionment. That’s where we are now. Both euphoria and disillusionment are a mistake. We are in a period of transition in which making proportionate decisions is difficult. Both euphoria and disillusionment are disproportionate responses.”

“In the 15 years of our democracy, the realities of constructing a new nation have revealed themselves as an entirely grittier and more complex task than we had anticipated. Our legacy challenges us once more with the task of reconstruction. We have not yet vanquished our past; nor have we yet fully constructed our future.”

 

I applaud SA for looking inward in such an open and honest manner. It is only on the foundation of complete trust in transparency and honesty that anyone can move forward.

Each of the 3 scenarios is written out as a narrative form, followed by a one page timeline, and completed with a set of future newspaper articles one might read if that future is the one which comes true.

The first 2 scenarios, Walk Apart and Walk Behind respectively, are the same story we see all too often. We begin with a government that doesn’t pay attention to its citizenry, and then find a citizenry that becomes dissolutions, apathetic, and ultimately angry and increasingly violent. Both scenarios result in increased poverty, decreased employment and a stalled economy.

Walk Apart shows a SA in which a justice system is completely broken with mafia like groups gaining control of their areas through imposed taxes in return for protection. This government always moved a step behind, taking the easier route. Relying on social grants rather than job creation. Social grants are, of course, not sustainable when there is no tax coming in. Although this SA cannot become fully authoritarian is does everything it can to keep the opposition from voicing its opinions.

Walk Behind seems to be very similar to Walk Apart, although less violent. The justice system has not collapsed, but the country’s debt grows so deep they are unable to move. The main problem seems to have stemmed from too large a focus on infrastructure building and borrowing unsustainable amounts of money to achieve these goals. Eventually the debt becomes too great, some of the infrastructure projects fail, others are uncompleted, and the rest haven’t created the kinds of jobs or investments needed. Other, much needed, social services like education and healthcare go largely untouched until it is too late. In 2018 foreign direct investment and domestic private sector investment dry up and lead to a plummeting economy. Although the government made a valiant attempt at independent development, they are eventually forced to get an IMF conditional loan, which includes a structural adjustment program. Social grants are cut and large parts of the economy are made private. As a result, pockets of civil unrest increase and the state becomes authoritarian as is attempts to suppress the violence and falls into the debt trap.

The third scenario—Walk Together—is, of course, the scenario we all want to see happen. If SA can follow Walk Together, not only will she find her own success and satisfaction, she will become an example for the rest of the world. Walk Together points to country in which the citizens are engaged and active, where they tell their politicians what they need, and their politicians listen. Walk Together also shows a South Africa where all sectors work together, government, business, unions, and civil society. It tells a story of businesses funding schools, so the businesses can later have the skilled labor they need to succeed. However, Walk Together doesn’t start well.

Until 2012, there is a “trust deficit” and a stalled economy. What turns this South Africa around? In 2012 there is a spontaneous demonstration over poor healthcare. As the news channels jump on the story the government attempts to quite the storm by asking the citizens to form “citizens’ healthcare groups” to allow for government-citizen collaboration. These citizens’ groups are found to be very successful, and soon spread to other sectors such as education. Now we see a South Africa in which the government is truly working with the people. What I love most about this scenario is the “citizen charters” which grow out of the citizen groups. “As politicians start drafting their election programmes, the citizens’ groups begin, in parallel, to draft “citizens’ charters” that they present at every election meeting. Politicians are no longer able to simply visit communities to present their election manifestos. Now, instead, they are compelled to listen as local communities present their charter to them.” A great trust between the citizenry and the government has developed, and when things get bad, the government asks for help. South Africa has become a dynamic, communicative, and cooperative society.

Dinokeng Scenarios says the key to success of Walk Together is a non-violent active citizenry, strict time limits for certain development goals, a strong and caring pro-poor government, fairly and properly regulated markets, a powerful business sector, and a globally competitive economy. Walk Together also mentions a “far-thinking private sector” as being key to success. I’m quite certain that South Africa’s commitment to forecasting will help it shuttle into a brighter future.