Institute For The Future

Pro-Poor Foresight

Since joining IFTF I have spent a fair amount of time thinking about how forecasting can be used in development work. I have a lot of faith in the power of foresight, scenario planning, and forecasting methodologies to help us make a better, more resilient, and more just world. 

I am constantly saddened by shortsighted development projects that have a very top-down, outsider is the expert, closed door mentality. The futures community has a large opportunity to work with development organizations and governments to make development a more egalitarian and long-term results oriented process.  

Not only can forecasting play a big role within development, but participatory or personal forecasting—the Institute has had some experience with this through our Amara Fund—can have a powerful ability to bring people out of their current circumstances and into a new mindset. People living under violent conditions or in extreme poverty are not in a position to think long-term and plan out their future, thereby being unable to change their circumstance for the better. A well lead forecasting exercise—whether it’s a community working together, policy makers, or individuals—can be a powerful catalyst for change.

I have recently been invited to collaborate on an exciting project called Foresight for Development based out of South Africa as an initiative of the South Africa Node of the Millennium Project. The aim of the project is to promote foresight in Africa from both a government and community level. The project kicked off with a conference in Bellagio, Italy sponsored by The Rockefeller Foundation. A fantastic repost called Foresight for Smart Globalization: Accelerating and Enhancing Pro-Poor Development Opportunities came out of the conference.  The report can be found on the Foresight for Development page. 

The report address everything I have been thinking regarding how forecasting and development can come together and packages it all into this nice and clean concept: pro-poor foresight. This is the second time I have come across the use of pro-poor recently. And I love the concept.  Most people I have spoken to about pro-poor are uneasy about the term, mainly due to the use of “poor” and a belief that it gives people the wrong message. Coming from my background I have a hard time seeing the negative reaction to the term. Pro-poor puts the power back in the hands of the poor and marginalized. By committing to utilizing pro-poor methodologies, you are acknowledging your commitment to equality and true collaboration. 

Pro-poor has two main distinguishing factors. The first and perhaps most important is the understanding and dedication to incorporating the poor or most marginalized people of a community into the process—be it development, growth, policy, or forecasting. As I mentioned in the beginning of the blog, the lack of incorporating locals into development initiatives is a distressing phenomenon. Pro-poor development understands that locals are the experts and need to be a part of the process. They need to own whatever projects are unfolding in their community. Pro-poor foresight takes the conscious effort to a) include poor people into the forecasting process and b) make more forecasts relevant to the world’s poor. Forecasting has been a tool of the wealthy. Whether from the Global North or the Global South, forecasting has been done by and for the most educated and wealthy. Pro-poor foresight acknowledges this fact and sets out to change that through participatory forecasting and keeping the poorest in mind while forecasting. According to the report, the key is using foresight in a way to promote pro-poor development.