Institute For The Future

How Climate Change Could Impact Health and Well-Being

Via I came across this study highlighting some of the ways in which climate change will impact health and well-being. The study, from University of Wisconsin researchers, is, not surprisingly, depressing. Among the findings:

Heat-sensitive illnesses and conditions identified by Patz’s group include diabetes, urinary tract and renal diseases such as kidney stones, respiratory conditions, accidents and suicide attempts. Surprisingly, the study did not find an increase in the incidence of hospital admissions due to heart disease, but Patz and his colleagues speculate that acute episodes of heart disease may be more lethal and are therefore reflected in records of mortality. Mortality records were intentionally excluded from the current study.

Age groups most at risk for hospitalization during heat waves are the very young, five-years-of age and younger, and the very old, 85 years and older.

Importantly, the study identifies temperature thresholds that, when surpassed, tend to prompt increases in the incidence of particular conditions. For example, conditions such as diabetes and kidney disorders become more problematic, with hospital admissions for those conditions predicted to rise by 13 percent for every two degrees the mercury rises above 85 degrees Fahrenheit.  

The study is actually much less depressing than a report by the Post Carbon Institute, which looks not only at the effects of climate change, but considers how potential energy challenges would impact health and well-being. They argue that, in effect, the environmental and energy challenges of the next several decades won't simply cause sudden shocks--like hospitalizations due to heat waves--but will fundamentally strain basic resources like food and water that determine health and well-being. For example, less energy and a harsher climate will make it hard to sustain, much less increase, agriculture output. Water supplies will be at greater risk to infectious disease. The likelihood of resource related mental health issues--ranging from depression to conflict--will increase dramatically.

Like I said, not the most uplifting subject to read about.

The Post Carbon Institute suggests a few health related strategies--including decentralized health clinics and increased use of mobile technologies--that can help hospitals and health practitioners navigate climate change, while they also argue that localizing food production will be critical to ensuring food supplies. On the bright side, many of these local and mobile strategies are already being adopted for other reasons, but actually have some potential to help.

I think the broader story here, though, relates to an argument that my colleague Miriam Lueck Avery developed for our most recent Health Horizons conference: Namely, that many of the biggest challenges to health and well-being will stem from external forces that exist far beyond the control of traditional health care. In other words, despite the huge known challenges--soaring medical costs, aging populations, unequal access to the factors that produce health--many of the challenges will stem from forces that are mostly of of people's radars. They're challenges we won't see coming, because we're too busy worrying about the challenges we can see coming.

In this sense, while local and mobile strategies will help, many of the most important strategies will stem from being flexible and able to adapt and manage the challenges we don't expect.