Institute For The Future

Causal Layered Analysis and Figuring Out What We're Talking About

 

 

As Rod and I were thinking through the "challenge of transforming bodies and lifestyles," I remembered a methodology that Jake was sharing the other day, Causal Layered Analysis. We found this really helpful to think through, though at this point we've only just started.

 

 

 

 

First of all, we can use it to think about WHAT we are talking about and WHY it's a challenge, in a more thorough way that pushes us past our usual stories. We can also apply it to any given one of our hypothesized clusters...

 

 

 

 

The short version is that it uses for different layers of analysis, representing different kinds of knowing what's going on, to figure out what's really going on and generate alternative futures from that:

 

 

1. 1. Litany
2. 2. Social Causes
3. 3. Discourse/Worldview
4. 4. Myth and Metaphor

 

 

 

The long version (from www.metafuture.org/Articles/CausalLayeredAnalysis.htm, by Hawaii alum Sohail Inayatuallah, inventor of the framework) actually explains what each of these categories mean:

 

 

 

 

 

Causal layered analysis is based on the assumption that the way in which one frames a problem changes the policy solution and the actors responsible for creating transformation. Using the works of Rick Slaughter, P.R. Sarkar and Oswald Spengler, I argue that futures studies should be seen as layered, as deep and shallow. Its textured richness cannot be reduced to empirical trends.

 

 

 

 

 

The first level is the "litany" - quantitative trends, problems, often exaggerated, often used for political purposes - (overpopulation, eg) usually presented by the news media. Events, issues and trends are not connected and appear discontinuous. The result is often either a feeling of helplessness (what can I do?) or apathy (nothing can be done!) or projected action (why don't they do something about it?). This is the conventional level of futures research which can readily create a politics of fear. This is the futurist as fearmonger who warns: "the end is near". However by believing in the prophecy and acting appropriately, the end can be averted.[16] The litany level is the most visible and obvious, requiring little analytic capabilities. It is believed, rarely questioned.

 

 

 

 

 

The second level is concerned with social causes, including economic, cultural, political and historical factors (rising birthrates, lack of family planning, eg). Interpretation is given to quantitative data. This type of analysis is usually articulated by policy institutes and published as editorial pieces in newspapers or in not-quite academic journals. If one is fortunate then the precipitating action is sometimes analysed (population growth and advances in medicine/health, eg). This level excels at technical explanations as well as academic analysis. The role of the state and other actors and interests is often explored at this level. The data is often questioned, however, the language of questioning does not contest the paradigm in which the issue is framed. It remains obedient to it.

 

 

 

 

 

The third deeper level is concerned with structure and the discourse/worldview that supports and legitimates it (population growth and civilizational perspectives of family; lack of women's power; lack of social security; the population/consumption debate, eg.). The task is to find deeper social, linguistic, cultural structures that are actor-invariant (not dependent on who are the actors). Discerning deeper assumptions behind the issue is crucial here as are efforts to revision the problem. At this stage, one can explore how different discourses (the economic, the religious, the cultural, for example) do more than cause or mediate the issue but constitute it, how the discourse we use to understand is complicit in our framing of the issue. Based on the varied discourses, discrete alternative scenarios can be derived here. For example, a scenario of the future of population based on religious perspectives of population ("go forth and multiply) versus cultural scenario focused on how women's groups imagine construct birthing and childraising as well as their roles in patriarchy and the world division of labor. These scenarios add a horizontal dimension to our layered analysis. The foundations for how the litany has been presented and the variables used to understand the litany are questioned at this level.

 

 

 

 

 

The fourth layer of analysis is at the level of metaphor or myth. These are the deep stories, the collective archetypes, the unconscious, of often emotive, dimensions of the problem or the paradox (seeing population as non-statistical, as community, or seeing people as creative resources, eg). This level provides a gut/emotional level experience to the worldview under inquiry. The language used is less specific, more concerned with evoking visual images, with touching the heart instead of reading the head. This is the root level of questioning, however, questioning itself finds its limits since the frame of questioning must enter other frameworks of understanding – the mythical, for example.

 

 

 

Specifically useful to us is this article:

 

 

CLA as Pedagogy in Studies of Science and Technology

 

 

This parsing from Sustainable Futures helped me in thinking about actually using this... it's meant to generate prompts in scenario workshops situations but I like the questions:

 

 

 

Litany: What might a current overdramatised newspaper headline about this issue look like?

Social Causes: How and why did the issue arise? Who is involved? What is the source of the litany? Why was it presented? Who is being quoted - what is their involvement? What are the underlying causes?

Discourse/Worldview: Who are the stakeholders? What values do they have? Who usually talks and lobbies about this issue? What do they stand to lose or gain? Who has the most control over the issue?

Note: As participants become more comfortable with CLA, it is helpful to refer to ideologies, as a way to frame stakeholder views.

Myth and Metaphor: What is an image or phrase that encapsulates what has been uncovered so far? What work of fiction, movie, poetry, art, etc. evokes an image of the issue being discussed? Are there any myths that may constrain thinking or acting in relation to this issue?

 

 

I think we should keep this in mind as we proceed, and at the very Rod and I recommend it if you're feeling trapped or stuck on a particular topic.